What history demands we remember amid a new Middle East crisis

PUBLISHED: February 28, 2026 | www.baltimoresun.com

“Here is the reality: Iran has a long history of advancing its nuclear program, and the international community has repeatedly raised concerns that it could move beyond peaceful energy into weapons capability. International inspectors have acknowledged they cannot fully verify all aspects of Iran’s enrichment activities, and uranium enriched to levels closer to weapons-grade has existed in stockpiles, though no confirmed active weapon has been produced. That ambiguity around capability versus intent is precisely what makes the issue so dangerous.

When we speak about Iran and Israel, we often default to absolutes: good versus evil, deterrence versus aggression, strength versus survival. But beneath the rhetoric and military briefings lies a deeper truth. Millions of ordinary people on both sides wake each morning hoping for something far less dramatic than geopolitical victory. They want stability. Safety. A future less defined by fear.

Israelis live with existential memory woven into national identity. Security is not theoretical; it is lived experience. Sirens, shelters and vigilance are not symbols; they are routine. The desire for deterrence is not ideological bravado; it is born from history. For many Israelis, peace is not naïveté. It is aspiration shaped by realism.

Iranians, meanwhile, are too often reduced to the posture of their regime. Yet Iran is a nation of poets, scientists, entrepreneurs and students navigating sanctions, economic strain and political constraint. A large portion of its population is young and globally aware. Many quietly long for opportunity, dignity and normal engagement with the world. Their aspirations cannot simply be conflated with the ambitions of those who govern them.

A serious narrative about stability must begin by separating people from power structures. The Israeli citizen and the Iranian citizen are not architects of grand strategy, yet they bear its heaviest consequences. Any pathway toward peace must honor that distinction.

But we must also acknowledge the hidden unknowns, the quiet variables shaping conflict behind the scenes. Intelligence assessments the public never sees. Proxy forces operating in the shadows. Cyber operations that never make headlines. Internal political pressures influencing decisions in moments of crisis. Escalations that can occur not by design, but by miscalculation.

There are unknowns within societies as well. Public opinion that shifts gradually. Economic strain that alters political tolerance. Generational divides that may reshape national direction. Reform movements that flicker beneath the surface. These forces rarely dominate headlines, yet they often determine the arc of history.

The United States and other global actors must navigate these uncertainties with sobriety. Support for Israel’s security is both strategic and moral. At the same time, acknowledging the humanity and potential evolution of Iranian society is essential. Strength without restraint risks endless cycles of escalation. Diplomacy without leverage risks emboldening aggression. The balance is delicate, and history warns us how easily it can tip.

History also reminds us of the pitfalls. Wars often begin with clear objectives and moral certainty but end in complexity no one predicted. The First World War was expected to be brief; it redrew maps and buried a generation. The invasion of Iraq began with confidence about weapons and a quick victory; it evolved into prolonged instability with consequences still unfolding. Even conflicts entered with defensive intent can expand beyond their initial scope through miscalculation, pride or shifting alliances.

Escalation is rarely linear. It has momentum of its own.

We must therefore admit what we do not know. How far retaliation might spread. Which alliances may activate. What unintended consequences could follow decisive action. Prudence is not weakness; it is wisdom earned through history’s hard lessons.

Giving the people of Iran and Israel a genuine chance at stability means resisting dehumanization and oversimplification. Deterrence may be necessary, but so is foresight. Regimes can change. Societies can evolve. Unexpected openings can emerge even in tense moments, but only if space is preserved for them.

The ultimate goal cannot simply be the absence of immediate violence. It must be the presence of conditions that reduce the likelihood of future conflict: accountable governance, economic opportunity, regional cooperation and sustainable deterrence balanced by restraint.

Peace, if it comes, will not arrive with spectacle. It will emerge quietly through recalibration, disciplined statecraft and the courage to pursue stability even when uncertainty clouds the path.

History urges humility. Humanity demands balance. And the future depends on both.

Armstrong Williams (www.armstrongwilliams.com; @arightside) is a political analyst, syndicated columnist and owner of the broadcasting company, Howard Stirk Holdings. He is also part owner of The Baltimore Sun.

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