Why the census debate is so important

PUBLISHED: February 3, 2026 | www.baltimoresun.com

The fight over the census is not really about counting people. It is about where political power is anchored in America.

The Constitution requires the census to count all persons residing in the United States, not just citizens and not just voters. That requirement has stood for more than two centuries, and from it flows two of the most consequential decisions in government: how congressional seats are apportioned and how federal resources are distributed.

Undocumented immigrants do not vote. They do not cast ballots for Congress or the president. But once counted in the census, they increase population totals in the states and districts where they reside. That population growth can mean additional seats in the U.S. House, greater influence in the Electoral College and more federal funding despite the fact that a portion of the counted population cannot legally participate in elections.

This reality explains why the census sits at the center of the modern immigration debate.

Republicans tend to argue that large-scale illegal immigration, combined with census counting, creates a structural imbalance. In their view, representation is meant to reflect the will of citizens and voters, not simply raw population. When undocumented residents are counted, they say, political power is redistributed without democratic consent, shifting influence toward states with looser enforcement and away from those that uphold the law. From this perspective, border control is not just about security; it is about preserving electoral fairness and constitutional balance.

Democrats reject the notion that this amounts to manipulation. They argue that the census has always counted people regardless of voting status — children, lawful permanent residents and others unable to vote are included without controversy. In their view, members of Congress represent communities, not just voters, and government decisions affect everyone who lives within those communities. Excluding undocumented immigrants, they argue, would erase millions of people who work, pay taxes, use infrastructure and depend on public services.

Still, political incentives cannot be ignored.

States with large undocumented populations tend to be urban, economically dense and politically Democratic. Population growth in those states strengthens their representation over time. Republicans see this demographic shift and conclude that lax border enforcement indirectly reshapes national power. Democrats, meanwhile, view strict enforcement-first approaches as morally deficient and economically disruptive, and they resist policies that reduce population counts or federal resources for their states.

What emerges is not a secret plot, but a collision of constitutional design and modern immigration realities.

At its core, the census debate forces the country to confront a question it has long avoided: Should political representation be grounded primarily in citizenship and voters, or in total population and residency? Until that question is resolved, the census will remain a proxy battlefield for immigration, border security and the future distribution of power in America.

The census does not decide elections, but it decides who starts with leverage for the next decade.

That is why the debate is so intense.

Armstrong Williams (www.armstrongwilliams.com; @arightside) is a political analyst, syndicated columnist and owner of the broadcasting company, Howard Stirk Holdings. He is also part owner of The Baltimore Sun.

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